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Japan’s

boffins:

Global

Warming

isn’t

man-made

By Andrew Orlowski

(Translation by

Charles Eicher)

February 25th, 2009

THEREGISTER.CO.UK

The Register (link)

_Part ONE of FOUR

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Exclusive –

Japanese

scientists

have made

a dramatic break with

the UN and Western-

backed hypothesis of

climate change in a

new report from its

Energy Commission.

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Three of the five researchers

disagree with the UN’s IPCC view

that recent warming is primarily

the consequence of man-made

industrial emissions

of greenhouse gases.

Remarkably,

the subtle and nuanced language

typical in such reports has

been set aside.

One of the five contributors

compares computer climate

modelling to ancient astrology.

Others castigate the paucity

of the US ground temperature

data set used to support

the hypothesis,

and declare that the unambiguous

warming trend from the mid-part

of the 20th Century has ceased.

The report by Japan Society

of Energy and Resources (JSER)

is astonishing rebuke to

international pressure,

and a vote of confidence in

Japan’s native marine and

astronomical research.

Publicly-funded science in

the West uniformly backs the

hypothesis that industrial

influence is primarily responsible

for climate change,

although fissures have

appeared recently.

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Only one of the five top

Japanese scientists commissioned

here concurs with the man-made

global warming hypothesis.

JSER is the academic society

representing scientists from

the energy and resource fields,

and acts as a government

advisory panel.

The report appeared last month

but has received curiously

little attention.

So The Register commissioned

a translation of the document –

the first to appear in the West

in any form.

Below you’ll find some

of the key findings –

but first,

a summary.

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Summary

Three of the five

leading scientists

contend that recent

climate change is

driven by natural cycles,

not human industrial

activity,

as political

activists argue.

Kanya Kusano is Program

Director and Group Leader

for the Earth Simulator at

the Japan Agency for

Marine-Earth Science & Technology

(JAMSTEC).

He focuses on the immaturity

of simulation work cited in

support of the theory of

anthropogenic climate change.

Using undiplomatic language,

Kusano compares them

to ancient astrology.

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After listing many faults,

and the IPCC’s own conclusion

that natural causes of climate

are poorly understood,

Kusano concludes:

“[The IPCC’s] conclusion

that from now on

atmospheric temperatures

are likely to show a

continuous, monotonic

increase,

should be perceived as

an unprovable hypothesis,”

he writes.

Shunichi Akasofu,

head of the International Arctic

Research Center in Alaska,

has expressed criticism

of the theory before.

Akasofu uses historical data

to challenge the claim that

very recent temperatures

represent an anomaly:

“We should be cautious,

IPCC’s theory that

atmospheric temperature

has risen since 2000 in

correspondence with CO2

is nothing but a hypothesis.”

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Akasofu calls the post-2000

warming trend hypothetical.

His harshest words are reserved

for advocates who give conjecture

the authority of fact.

“Before anyone noticed,

this hypothesis has

been substituted for

truth…

The opinion that great

disaster will really

happen must be broken.”

 

What is the source of the

rise in atmospheric temperature

in the second half of

the 20th century?

 

Shunichi Akasofu

Introductory discussion.

Point 1.1:

Global Warming

has halted

Global mean temperature

rose continuously from 1

800-1850.

The rate of increase was .05

degrees Celsius per 100 years.

This was mostly

unrelated to CO2 gas

(CO2 began to increase

suddenly after 1946.

Until the sudden increase,

the CO2 emissions rate had

been almost unchanged

for 100 years).

However,

since 2001,

this increase halted.

Despite this,

CO2 emissions are

still increasing.

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According to the IPCC panel,

global atmospheric temperatures

should continue to rise,

so it is very likely that the

hypothesis that the majority

of global warming can be

ascribed to the Greenhouse Effect

is mistaken.

There is no prediction of

this halt in global warming

in IPCC simulations.

The halt of the increase

in temperature,

and slight downward trend

is “something greater than

the Greenhouse Effect,”

but it is in effect.

What that “something” is,

is natural variability.

From this author’s research

into natural (CO2 emissions

unrelated to human activity)

climate change over the past

1000 years,

it can be asserted that the

global temperature increase

up to today is primarily recovery

from the “Little Ice Age” earth

experienced from 1400

through 1800

(i.e. global warming

rate of change＝0.5℃/100).

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The recovery in temperatures

since follows a naturally variable

30-50 year cycle,

(quasi-periodic variations),

and in addition,

this cycle has been

positive since 1975,

and peaked in the year 2000.

This quasi-periodic cycle has

passed its peak and has begun

to turn negative.

(The IPCC ascribes the

positive change since 1975,

for the most part, to CO2 and

the Greenhouse Effect.)

This quasi-periodic cycle

fluctuates 0.1 degrees C per

10 years,

short term

(on the order of 50 years).

This quasi-periodic cycle’s

amplitude is extremely

pronounced in the Arctic Circle ,

so it is easy to understand.

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The previous quasi-periodic

cycle was positive from

1910 to 1940 and negative

from 1940 to 1975

(despite CO2 emissions

rapid increase after 1946).

Regardless of whether or

not the IPCC has sufficiently

researched natural variations,

they claim that CO2 has

increased particularly

since 1975.

Consequently,

after 2000,

although it should have

continued to rise,

atmospheric temperature

stabilised completely

(despite CO2 emissions

continuing to increase).

Since 1975 the chances of

increase in natural variability

(mainly quasiperiodic vibration)

are high;

moreover,

the quasiperiodic vibration

has turned negative.

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___35 Inconvenient Truths:

__________Lord Monckton                Al Gore

________

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Related links in GREEN

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ClimateGate link in GREEN

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