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Posts Tagged ‘The Fed can’t keep printing money to buy U.S. bonds

Flee the Stock Market now now NOW

January 3, 2014

Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.

Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate. He recently complained of “disappointing performance” in dyed-in-the-wool American companies like Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Kraft Foods.

In the latest filing for Buffett’s holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has been drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits. Berkshire sold roughly 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson, and reduced his overall stake in “consumer product stocks” by 21%. Berkshire Hathaway also sold its entire stake in California-based computer parts supplier Intel.

With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, Buffett’s apparent lack of faith in these companies’ future prospects is worrisome.

Unfortunately Buffett isn’t alone.

Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks too. During the second quarter of the year, Paulson’s hedge fund, Paulson & Co., dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase. The fund also dumped its entire position in discount retailer Family Dollar and consumer-goods maker Sara Lee.

Finally, billionaire George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.

So why are these billionaires dumping their shares of U.S. companies?

After all, the stock market is still in the midst of its historic rally. Real estate prices have finally leveled off, and for the first time in five years are actually rising in many locations. And the unemployment rate seems to have stabilized.

It’s very likely that these professional investors are aware of specific research that points toward a massive market correction, as much as 90%.

One such person publishing this research is Robert Wiedemer, an esteemed economist and author of the New York Times best-selling book Aftershock

Prepare for the economic crash

August 30, 2013

[Editor’s note: the following is a cross post by Peter J. Tanous that originally appeared on CNBC.com]:

Stock market declines, especially the violent kind we refer to as “crashes,” are pretty hard to predict.

True, for every crash one or two visionaries emerge who called the market decline with unusual accuracy. In time, we generally conclude that these visionaries were more lucky than prescient, because there are no records of prognosticators who predict market crashes more than once.

But this time may be different.

The Federal Reserve has been propping up the stock market through its quantitative easing program that forced interest rates to all-time lows and drove investors out of bonds and into stocks.

But those days may be coming to an end.

For one, the Fed can’t keep printing money to buy U.S. bonds. Bond purchases by the Fed, with printed money, account for about three-quarters of all Treasury bond purchases resulting in a Federal Reserve balance sheet that exceeds $3.6 trillion.

One day, QE must come to an end.

Indeed, on June 19, 2013, Fed chairman Bernanke hinted that QE might slow from its recent pace.

The stock market reacted with a hefty decline of 2.5 percent on June 20. By June 24, the stock market had declined almost 5 percent in less than a week.

Now this isn’t a crash by any measure, but it might be a harbinger of things to come. Here’s where the predictability thesis come in.

We know that the market won’t like any reduction in Fed purchases. So what will happen when the Fed not only reduces its bond purchases, but stops them altogether? Hasn’t the market told us how it will react?

I think so. Moreover, QE is likely to end by December or early next year, so that gives us a projected timetable of coming events.

What’s an investor to do?

Most investors have substantial gains in 2013. Stock are up 17 percent through late August and investors are eager to protect their gains.