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Predicting the future

Numerical simulation by forecast models are generally classified

 

as theoretical models and

empirical models.

The former follows universal laws

and carries out predictive

calculations,

the latter makes models that are

thought to be realistic from data

of phenomenon.

These two methods cannot

be strictly differentiated,

generally experiential methods

gradually become theoretical

methods,

finally becoming the

generally accepted dogma.

Celestial mechanics originated

in astrological prediction of

solar and lunar eclipses,

calendars were

experiential predictions;

mechanistic theory evolved

when we reached an era of

accurate computation.

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Consequently,

the predictability of celestial

mechanics became extremely

high and practical estimates

gave way to proof.

Similarly,

modern Global Climate Models

still largely dependent on

empirical models.

Fundamental principles,

therefore must resolve very

complex physical/chemical/

biological processes

and phenomenon.

That is why many artificial

optimization operations

(parameterization tuning)

are needed,

or we will not be able to

reproduce the phenomenon.

Because of this,

besides mathematical accuracy,

the people who construct

models’ choice of processes and

optimum operating guidelines

will have large scale effects

on the calculated results.

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1.

Scientific Understanding

and Uncertainty

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When constructing models,

if our scientific understanding

is poor,

we are not able to

capture the model.

But we should pay attention to

the importance of the naturally

occurring processes when our

scientific understanding is

not yet clearly decided.

In the IPCC’s 4th

Evaluation Report,

a few potentially major

processes were discussed;

but [since] scientific

understanding was

too low to decide,

the evaluation of

these was omitted.

In order to scientifically

understand the uncertainty

of accurate estimates according

to the potential importance

of these processes,

“the cause of lack of scientific

understanding and uncertainty”

must be assessed.

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Finally,

uncertainty estimates

should be included.

For example,

the effect of variances in

cosmic ray activity on clouds,

caused by sunspot activity,

solar flares accompanied by

energetic protons striking

the upper atmosphere and

generating NOx

and ozone effects [*], etc.,

are not sufficiently understood

and incorporated

into the models.

Also,

there are great uncertainties

in reproducing historical TSI

(Total Solar Irradiance),

TSI fluctuation and spectral

change related climate sensitivity

estimates are inadequate.

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___35 Inconvenient Truths:

__________Lord Monckton                Al Gore

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Related links in GREEN

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ClimateGate link in GREEN

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