Japan scientists expose ClimateGate! (Part FOUR of FOUR)
.
.
. .
Japan’s
boffins:
Global
Warming
isn’t
man-made
By Andrew Orlowski
(Translation by
Charles Eicher)
February 25th, 2009
THEREGISTER.CO.UK
The Register (link)
_Part FOUR of FOUR
. .Japan’s
boffins:
Global
Warming
isn’t
man-made
By Andrew Orlowski
(Translation by
Charles Eicher)
February 25th, 2009
THEREGISTER.CO.UK
The Register (link)
_Part FOUR of FOUR
2.
The limits of modeling
aerosols and clouds
.
The indirect effect of aerosols
and aerosol generation as the
greatest uncertainty is
becoming widely recognized,
but fundamental,
naturally spontaneous
(especially oceanic) aerosols
are not yet well understood.
Dimethyl sulfide (DMS: CH3SCH3)
of biological origin is thought to
be a primary source of sulphuric
aerosol formation over oceans,
but the process of cloud cores
forming from DMS is not
sufficiently understood.
According to recent
physical models,
the percentage of involvement
of cosmic ray ionization
processes is not well understood.
Furthermore,
the types of aerosols and the
ways they affect climate
systems are not well understood.
.
.
The increasing number of aerosols,
in this case,
augments precipitation,
but if it increases too much,
water droplet diameter will
decrease and cloud generation
will be renewed,
and the albedo will
be changed significantly.
Thus,
the fine-scale physical processes
of clouds causing feedback in
geological climate fluctuation
now clearly points at this as
a decisively material effect.
However,
the discussion of the properties
and life span of aerosols in
clouds in the IPCC 4th
Evaluation Report is inadequate.
.
.
3.
Predictability and
estimation rules
.
The 4th Evaluation Report
is confident of the reliability
of its assessment that previous
data does not differ from
its model.
But a more effectively persuasive
assessment of its predictive ability
has not come forth.
This is like the ancient Greek
Thales predicting solar eclipses,
future predictions should be
tested in practice.
Again,
by means of short metaphase
models and domain models,
future information feedback
can be isolated in hindcast
experiments
(reproducing the past
according to the model)
and quantitatively compared
to long term climate
predictions assessments.
.
.
4.
Conclusion:
Anthropogenic global
warming theory
still hypothetical
.
To summarize the discussion so far,
compared to accurately predicting
solar eclipses by celestial
mechanics theoretical models,
climate models are still in the
phase of reliance on trial and
error experiential models.
There are still no
successful precedents.
The significance of this
is that climate change
theory is still dominated
by anthropogenic
greenhouse gas causation;
the IPCC 4th Evaluation
Report’s conclusion that
from now on atmospheric
temperatures are likely
to continuously,
monotonously increase,
should be perceived as
an unprovable hypothesis;
it will be necessary investigate
further and to evaluate future
predictions as subject
to natural variability. ®
.
.
.
___35 Inconvenient Truths:
__________Lord Monckton Al Gore
__
.
.
Related links in GREEN
.
.
ClimateGate link in GREEN
.
.
.
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